Last week's announcement that the Government will freeze fuel duty until 2015 has come at a time when fuel costs have fallen to their lowest in over two-and-a-half years. The AA say the average cost of diesel in the UK fell from 142.5 pence per litre (ppl) in mid-September to 139.12ppl in mid-October, its lowest since March 2011; the average cost of a litre of unleaded petrol fell from 137.64ppl to 132.16ppl over the same period, its lowest since February 2011. Supermarket price wars, a strengthening pound and recent falls in the price of crude oil have helped to reduce pump prices and give consumers a timely Christmas boost. However, analysts have warned that growing oil demand over the winter and ongoing political uncertainty in the Middle East could see prices creep up again. This is likely to begin with a 2p increase in pump price in the coming weeks following a £2.40 increase in crude oil. Mike Waters, head of insight and consultancy at fleet firm Arval, said: 'Some of the recent falls in forecourt prices can be attributed to the relatively strong value of sterling _ it's currently around $1.61 to the pound up from $1.5 a couple of months ago. When the pound is strong, then you should see something filter through at the pumps. 'Over the past few weeks, the supermarkets have been the quickest to respond to any opportunity to reduce their price _ and this tends to lead the market.î In October, Asda announced it would cap national fuel prices, with consumers not having to pay more than 126.7 ppl for petrol and 133.7 ppl for diesel, forcing rivals Tesco, Morrisons and Sainsbury to cut prices, too. However, AA public affairs spokesman Luke Bosdet has warned that rising crude oil prices could see prices begin to rise again over the next few weeks: 'If you look at what's happened over the past couple of years, the market loves to bottom out at around 132ppl for petrol and at the moment, it's a shade above 130p. 'Based simply on what's happened in previous years, there's a likelihood that the price will go back up slightly.î Petrol prices are notoriously volatile, being vulnerable to a number of market factors, adds Bosdet: 'If you look at what's happened over the past couple of years, the market loves to bottom out at around 132ppl for petrol and at the moment, it's a shade above 130p. 'Based simply on what's happened in previous years, there's a likelihood that the price will go back up slightly.î